Some Analysis

I figured everyone else was doing it, and I am all for jumping on the bandwagon. So here are a few thoughts on the (not-so) recent Alberta Election. As a warning, this is an actual read, a bit of a rant, and there are no hyperlinks. So if you are lazy, do not bother. See you all in Manitoba.

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The issues of this election were primarily “left” issues – environmental protection, child-care, labour issues, affordability (housing, seniors, etc.), and how to manage the economy during this boom. Despite this, and the ever-present need for “change”, the Liberals and NDP were unable to capture votes on these issues. The Alberta Liberals are still carrying around the ghost of Trudeau, while the NDP leadership abandoned the environmental file, and was out-done by the Liberals on the Labour front [at least, as far as the press was concerned]. Because of these main factors, the PC’s were able to “own” the left issues and – thanks to some very good vote splitting in Edmonton and Calgary – gained more seats than even their war room predicted.

Specifically for the NDP, they did not focus on the seats they held, and worried more about expansion than retention. Campaign included a commercial to air in the last two weeks of the campaign, which proved entirely ineffective and did nothing to help the party’s chances. When looking at individual based platforms, the NDP drifted further to centre with their so-called “populist” campaign than has ever been seen. There were also many party members who were upset that most of the “attacks” made by candidates and the leadership appeared to go against Kevin Taft and the Liberals, rather than Ed Stelmach and the PC’s. On election day, despite the efforts made by many people I know, the NDP voters just did not turn up to the polls.

The Liberal party became overconfident – perhaps buoyed by their praise in the Edmonton Journal and the Calgary Herald – about their chances in Calgary. Again, this party failed to capture the imaginations of voters enough to change them from PC to Liberal supporters. While their platform was praised for being extremely thorough, not many voters actually take the time to understand in-depth policy matters and this hampered the Liberals chances of collecting more seats. In addition to this, there was still the failure to get out the vote in key areas, and vote splitting with the NDP in all the constituencies that were supposedly "in play" prior to the election.

The PC’s were able to pick up seats due to vote splitting, and their ability to garner the best media responses. Despite what opposition parties said, issues like Tory returning officer connections, no polling station on south-western reserves, and Health board endorsements of Tory candidates did not resonate. Particularly they made no impact on the supposed 50-40% of Albertans who were “undecided”. These undecided voters are always key, and because opposition parties spent their time on personal attacks, rather than issue-based attacks, they were unable to woo the popular vote. During the leadership debate, Ed Stelmach did not have to fend off nearly as much opposition attack as he should have, and this allowed him to sail through the debate, and even come out looking alright. Instead of attacking the Conservatives, Mason and Taft fought with each other - and allowed Paul Hinmann to make Ed Stelmach look like Karl Marx in comparison.

Overall, this election was about a change – but none of the opposition parties were able to do some key things:

· Have a high visibility throughout Alberta

· Convince undecided voters

· Properly deflect any pre-conceived notions of their parties

· Overcome the financial barriers of running a campaign against the big blue machine

Therefore, the best change that non-hack, and non-partisan Albertans were offered is a change from Ralph Klein to Ed Stelmach. Now, can anyone really be blamed for staying home?